Ray Kurzweil knows the future. He’s the oracle of technological development or as he likes to call it technological singularity. The New Oxford American Dictionary defines singularity as “a point in the future (often set at or around 2030 A.D.) beyond which overwhelming technical changes (especially the development of superhuman artificial intelligence) make reliable predictions impossible.” But what exactly those reliable predictions?
Since only Kurzweil knows how to look forward in time, everyone else is left with one option: look back to the past. Take for example February 2005, when Kurzweil gave an inspiring talk at Monterey, CA as part of TedTalk.
This talk teaches us about our current present in 2010. Let us see how did the kurzweilian utopia with exponential developmental curves realized itself. Apparently, we have cheap, decentralized, renewable solar panels transforming the Sun’s power into local energy banks for each households. No families worry anymore about gas prices. We barely hear about those infamous oil giants, whose lobby of certain political agendas used to set gas prices and decided which country deserves democracy and which don’t.
We have almost reached the end of Moore’s law, and surely by 2022 the prediction of the famous founding father of Intel will be outdated. Microchips will soon stop halving in size and doubling in their processing performance. Lucky for us, however, the end of Moore’s law doesn’t mean the end of exponential (or as these days we often refer to kurzokurtic) technological development. A paradigm shift is knocking on our door in the form of nano-biotechnology, whereby not only our bloodstream will be populated with tiny robots that make us swim much faster than today, but biochips will change motherboard architecture – probably until 202* (TBA date).
Computers have definitely disappeared from our lives. To be precise, they didn’t disappear, they shrunk, got embedded into our clothing, or we don’t really perceive them as we’re by now fully immersed in virtual realities. I’m actually typing this on a keyboard in SecondLife that only exists for me since it’s projected directly onto my retina and the only thing that reminds me of the physical city of San Francisco is an augmented image of the Golden Gate bridge – part real, part virtual.
Naturally, we know that this is only the beginnings. The latest deadline for a “full maturity of these predictions” is 2029. By that date, we’ll have finished the full merge of human-computer technologies. Our brain will be fully reverse engineered, recreated and entangled. Once and for all Hofstadter will be proven wrong: our brain is smart enough to understand its complexity.
P.S.: If your reality in 2010 is not as described above, adjust your own reality to a more kurzokurtic one… Send me an email and I reply how… Maybe in 2029.